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制高点-第10部分
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MARGARET THATCHER： And I'll strive unceasingly to try to fulfill the trust and confidence that the British people have placed in me and the things in which I believe。
撒切尔夫人：我将继续奋斗以不辜负英国人民对我的信任和期望并实现我的信仰。
NARRATOR： Determined； and some said strident； she would revolutionize the economy。
旁白：她将坚定地，有人说是尖锐地，对经济进行大刀阔斧的改革。
MARGARET THATCHER （interviewed in 1993）： The spirit of enterprise had been sat upon for years by socialism； by too…high taxes； by too…high regulation； by too…public expenditure。 The philosophy was nationalization； centralization； control； regulation。 Now this had to end。
撒切尔夫人（1993年采访）：企业精神已经被社会主义、过高的税收、过强的管制和过分公用的支出压制了很多年。基本观点就是国有化、中央集权、控制和调节。现在，这一切都结束了。
NARRATOR： Thatcher squeezed government spending and cut subsidies to business。 Thousands of bankruptcies and higher unemployment followed。 Many saw her as uncaring。 Britain had rarely been so divided。
旁白：撒切尔减少政府支出，削减企业津贴。随之而来的是数千起破产和更高的失业率。许多人认为她缺乏同情心。英国很少存在如此大的分歧。
CROWD OF PROTESTERS： Maggie； Maggie； Maggie。 Out； out； out！
抗议的人群高声喊着：玛吉、玛吉、玛吉，出来、出来、出来！
NARRATOR： Thatcher had no time for conventional； Keynesian economists who urged her to use government money to lessen the pain。
旁白：撒切尔没有时间遵循常规了；凯恩斯主义的经济学家力劝她增加政府支出以缓解痛苦。
MARGARET THATCHER： Although 364 economists wrote to the Times and said； "；This is outrageous； you'll put us into a deep depression from a recession；"； 364 were wrong； and the half dozen who supported us were right。
撒切尔夫人：尽管有364位经济学家给《时代》杂志写信说：“这是无法容忍的；你将使我们因衰退而陷入深深的沮丧之中。”这364个人都错了，只有那六个支持我的人是对的。
And those who urge us to relax the squeeze； to spend yet more money indiscriminately in the belief that we'll help the unemployed and the small businessman； are not being kind or passionate or caring。 I have only one thing to say： U…turn if you want to。 The lady's not for turning。
那些力劝我增加支出，不分青红皂白地相信我们将帮助失业者和小型企业的人，并不是仁慈或者富于同情心或者人道的。我只有一件事要说：如果你想大转弯你就转，但这位女士不会转。
NARRATOR： In Britain； the battle lines were drawn。 In America； the fight was already under way。
旁白：在英国，斗争还在谋划；而在美国，战斗已经开始了。
txt小说上传分享
Chapter 16： Reagan Rides In ＇8：17＇
第十六章：里根上台
Onscreen title： USA； 1979
字幕标题：美国，1979年
NARRATOR： Things were at a low in the United States。 President Carter spoke of malaise and loss of confidence in the country。 Revolution in Iran had led to a second oil shock and Americans held hostage in Tehran。 Despite the beginning of deregulation； inflation was still at record heights。 Carter's attempts to follow Keynes's formula and spend his way out of trouble were going nowhere。
旁白：美国一片衰败景象，卡特总统谈到国内存在的不安和信心丧失。伊朗革命引起第二次石油危机；美国人在德黑兰被扣为人质。尽管开始取消管制，通货膨胀率仍然创历史最高水平。卡特试图追随凯恩斯的方法来摆脱危机，但遭到了失败。
LARRY LINDSEY； Assistant to the President for Economic Policy： Jimmy Carter was maybe the high point of Keynesian behavior。 And it simply was not working。
LARRY LINDSEY，总统经济政策助理：吉米。卡特也许是最彻底地遵循凯恩斯主义者行动的，但是它就是不起作用。
GEORGE SHULTZ： Toward the end of the Carter administration； with inflation out of control； Paul Volcker was made chairman of the Federal Reserve。 He understood the problems。
GEORGE SHULTZ：在卡特总统的任期将要结束时，Paul Volcker成为美联储的主席，当时通货膨胀已经失控。他清楚当时的问题。
JIMMY CARTER： I'm grateful to Paul Volcker for being willing now to accept the oath of office and the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve system of our country。 Paul？
卡特：我很感谢Paul Volcker愿意在这个时候接受任命，负起我们国家联邦储备系统的责任，Paul？
NARRATOR： Paul Volcker was steeped in the ideas of Austrian school economics。
旁白：Paul Volcker深受奥地利经济学派的影响。
PAUL VOLCKER； Federal Reserve Board； 1979…1987： It's obvious to all of you from what's been said today that we're face to face with really unique economic difficulties。
PAUL VOLCKER；美联储，1979－1987年：从当前的舆论中可以很明显地看出我们正面临真正独特的经济困难。
NARRATOR： Volcker believed that inflation was one of the worst of all economic evils。
旁白：Volcker相信通货膨胀最糟糕的经济恶魔之一。
PAUL VOLCKER： It came to be considered part of Keynesian doctrine that a little bit of inflation is a good thing。 And of course what happens then； you get a little bit of inflation； then you need a little more； because it peps up the economy。 People get used to it； and it loses its effectiveness。 Like an antibiotic； you need a new one； you need a new one。 Well； I certainly thought that inflation was a dragon that was eating at our innards； so the need was to slay that dragon。
PAUL VOLCKER：有一点通货膨胀是好事情，这被认为什凯恩斯模式的一部分。当然那时候发生的事情是有一点通货膨胀，然后你还需要一点，因为这可以刺激经济。但是当人们已经习惯了的时候，这种方法就无效了。就像抗生素一样，你需要一种新的抗生素；以后你还会再需要其其它新的抗生素。噢，我当然认为通货膨胀是吞吃我们财富的恶龙，所以我们要做的就是杀死这条龙。
NARRATOR： Volcker used a blunt weapon： He tightened the money supply。 The economy went into a nosedive。 Facing a presidential election； Carter was reluctant to back such harsh measures。
旁白：Volcker使用了一件钝武器：他减少了货币供给。经济发展急剧减速。面临总统选举的卡特不情愿支持这么一项严厉的措施。
Carter's rival was the Republican Ronald Reagan。 Reagan shared the same economic philosophy as Margaret Thatcher。 For over 20 years； he had been campaigning against the Keynesian orthodoxy and for Hayek and Friedman's ideas of free markets and freedom。
卡特的对手是共和党人罗纳德。里根。里根与玛格丽特。撒切尔地经济观点一致。二十多年里他一直参加反对正统凯恩斯主义和支持哈耶克与弗里德曼关于自由市场和自由的观点的活动。
NEWT GINGRICH； Speaker； ； 1995…1999： Reagan knew Hayek personally； he knew Milton Friedman personally。 And Reagan was； in a sense； their popularizer。 So he was the person who would take these people who were very profound but not very easy to municate。 I don't think you'd ever get Hayek on the Today show； but you could get Reagan explaining the core of Hayek with better examples and in more understandable language。
NEWT GINGRICH，美国众议院议长，1995－1999年：里根认识哈耶克；他也认识米尔顿。弗里德曼。在某种意义上里根是他们的普及者。因此他就是那个推广这些造诣精神但不容易沟通者的思想的人。我想你不曾让哈耶克上今日节目，但你可以让里根用更好的例子和更易懂的预言来解释哈耶克思想的核心。
RONALD REAGAN； ； 1981…1989： Vote for me； if you believe in yourself； if you believe in your right to control your own destiny and plan your own life； yes； and have a say in the spending of your own money。
里根，美国总统，1981－1989年：如果你相信你自己，如果你坚信你掌握决定自己命运和规划自己生活的权力（是的，你对于如何花自己的钱有发言权），那么请投我一票。
The president is going to have more government on the backs of the people and of business and of industry； the working people； in order to try to solve the problems that were created by too much government on our backs。
为了解决太多的政府干预所造成的问题，总统将对人民、企业和行业进行更多的政府干预。
We can get government off our backs； out of our pockets。 This kind of indifference to economic disaster must be ended； and it'll be ended by having a different kind of leadership。
我们可以不受政府的干预；这种对经济灾难的漠不关心必须结束；可以通过一种完全不同的领导来结束它。
NARRATOR： The American people voted for change； and Reagan became president。
旁白：美国人投了变革的票，里根当选为总统。
MILTON FRIEDMAN： The situation was this： The only way you could get the inflation down was by having monetary contraction。 There was no way you could do that without having a temporary recession。
弗里德曼：形势是这样的：降低通货膨胀率的唯一方法是收紧银根，而这必然引起暂时的衰退。
GEORGE SHULTZ： Obviously； who wants a recession？ But I can remember President Reagan using those famous words： "；If not now； when？ If not us； who？"；
GEORGE SHULTZ：很明显，谁希望经济衰退？但我记得里根总统那句著名的话：“如果不是现在，那是什么时候？如果不是我们，那是谁？”
NARRATOR： Reagan offered Volcker his moral support in the fight against inflation。 As Volcker tightened the money supply； the economy slowed and contracted。 Unemployment hit 10 percent。 Nobody had realized quite how tough it would be。
旁白：在与通货膨胀的斗争中里根为Volcker提供了道义上的支持。随着Volcker减少货币供给，经济开始减速和紧缩。失业率达到了10％。没有人意识到这将是多么困难的一件事。
All across the heartland of America； ordinary people were hurting。
整个美国的普通人都受到损害。
DARREN SMITH； Farmer： Well； the interest rates； that just eats up your profit。 It bees very difficult to keep your business running right。 Nineteen eighties； the interest rates were up to 20 percent or better。 It was very interesting times。 I remember； you know； cash flows got very tight as things got tighter and tougher。 Creditors forced sales …… you know； "；e up with the cash or we're going to have to liquidate you。"； It's a hole that almost seems impossible that you can get out of。
DARREN SMITH，农场主：噢，利率，吞噬了你的利润。保持企业正常运转变得非常困难。利率达到20％或者更高。这是一个非常有趣的时代。我记得，你知道，随着生意变得越来越无利可图和困难，现金流也越来越紧。债权人在施加压力－你知道，“拿出钱来，否则我们就清算你。”这看起来几乎是一个你不可能摆脱的困境。
PAUL VOLCKER： If you had told me in August of 1979 that interest rates； the prime rate would get to ； I probably would have crawled into a hole。 I would have crawled into a hole and cried； I suppose。 But then we lived through it。 （laughs）
PAUL VOLCKER：如果你在1979年8月告诉我利率，基本利率将达到，那么我可能已经陷入了困境。我想，我本应该已经陷入困境，在那里哭泣的。但是那时我们挺过来了。（笑）
NARRATOR： It had taken three years …… three years of growing public anger； three years of real hardship for millions of Americans。 But by 1982； the dragon of inflation had been slain。
旁白：这持续了三年－这三年是公众的愤怒情绪不断增强的时期，也是对数百万美国人来说真正困难的时期。但是到1982年的时候，通货膨胀这条恶龙已经被消灭了。
PAUL VOLCKER： What changed drastically in the 1980s and running through today is the kind of presumption that inflation is bad。 The primary job of a central bank is to prevent inflation。 That's a very different environment than the '50s and '60s。
PAUL VOLCKER：“通货膨胀是糟糕的事情"；这个假定是经过八十年代的激烈变化确立的，并且一直使用到今天。中央银行的基本职责就是防止发生通货膨胀。这 与五十年代和六十年代的情况完全不同。
ANNOUNCER： Ladies and gentlemen； the president of the United States。
广播员：女士们、先生们，美国总统。
NARRATOR： Reagan and Volcker had set the United States on a new economic course。
旁白：里根和Volcker根据全新的经济路
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