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制高点-第29部分
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MARK MOBIUS： The Central Bank kept saying no； no； no。 And they were shelling out the ； and of course any hedge fund manager looking at that would say； "；Hey； these guys are going to be in trouble； and I'm going to short the Thai baht。"；
MARK MOBIUS：中央银行一直在说不，不，不。他们出售美元以保护本国货币。所以，他们的外汇储备迅速降低，而那些对冲基金经理人看到这种情况就会说：“哈， 这些人要有麻烦了，我可要对泰铢作空。
NARRATOR： The baht came under relentless market pressure。 In July 1997； the Thai government was forced to devalue。
旁白：泰铢面临强大的市场压力。1997年7月，泰国政府被迫降低币值。
The bubble had burst。 The Asian financial crisis was about to begin。
泡沫破灭了。亚洲金融危机即将开始。
SIRVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN： When the crisis hit； I realized my fate。 I could not sell a single unit when the crisis hit。
SIRVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN：当危机来临时，我意识到了我的命运。当危机来临的时候，我一套房子也卖不出去了。
My condominium is called the American dream home； dream condominium。 But we are broke。 Even my clients who were multibillionaires are broke also。
我的豪华公寓叫做“美国梦幻家园”。但是，我们破产了。连我的那些曾经是百万富翁的客户都破产了。
NARRATOR： The economic shock reverberated throughout all levels of Thai society。
旁白：这一经济动荡回旋于泰国社会的各个层面。
PANJIT NIYOMDET； Factory Worker； Bangkok。 Thailand： When the economy went bad； my husband's salary was cut 30 percent。 I was lucky； I kept my job； but I didn't get a raise。 To support our family； my husband had to find other work。
PANJIT NIYOMDET，工厂工人，曼谷，泰国：当经济不好的时候，我丈夫的薪水降低了30％。我算是幸运的。我保住了我的工作，但是，我没有得到加薪。为了养活一家，我丈夫不得不再去找其他工作。
NARRATOR： The cost of living was rising。 Everything was going up …… water； electricity； even soap。 But the salaries were staying the same； or going down。
旁白：消费水平不断提高。所有东西都涨价 —— 水，电，甚至肥皂。而工资却没有涨甚至下降了。
With its economy in a virtual free fall； Thailand received an emergency rescue loan from the International Monetary Fund。 When that didn't work； the Thai government asked Washington for even more help。
由于泰国的经济的实际下滑，泰国得到了国际货币基金组织的一笔紧急援助贷款。而当这也无济于事时，泰国政府向华盛顿请求更多的帮助。
No one imagined that an economy as small as Thailand's could spark a global crisis。
没有人能想象到一个象泰国经济这样小的经济体竟可以引发一场全球危机。
Chapter 12： Contagion Engulfs Asia ＇7：13＇
第十二章： 危机的影响吞没了亚洲
LAURA TYSON： Thailand is a very small economy。 It didn't have a lot of links； and it's not exactly in your backyard。 So in any event； the ； thinking it was not going to spill over。 Why would it？ The contagion effects were not apparent to anybody； not just the administration。
LAURA TYSON：泰国是一个很小的经济体。它没有太多的联系，也并不在你的后院。因此，在任何事件中，美国都选择不去干预泰国的事情，因为认为它不会蔓延。为什么会呢？传染的效果当时对任何人来说，不仅仅是行政当局，都不明显。
LEE HSIEN LOONG： I think they misjudged the situation。 They misjudged the situation； probably because it was seen too much as a financial issue rather than an overall strategic issue。
LEE HSIEN LOONG：我认为他们错误地判断了形势。错误地判断了形势的原因可能是，大家把它过多地看成是一个金融问题而不是一个整体的战略问题。
NARRATOR： Global markets worried that other Asian countries might have similar hidden flaws。 Like a classic run on the bank； money began to pull out of the entire region。 They called it contagion。
旁白：全球市场都担心其他亚洲国家可能也存在着类似的隐藏着的漏洞。就象一个银行的传统运营方式，资金被从整个这一地区抽走，他们把它叫做恶性蔓延。
Onscreen caption： 116 billion flowed out of Southeast Asian markets。
字幕：一千一百六十亿美元流出东南亚市场。
DANIEL YERGIN： And at each stage； the crisis turned out to have a virulence that became known as contagion； much greater than anticipated。 And what that really reflected was indeed globalization； was the way these economies had bee locked together and investors looked at emerging markets。 They said there was a problem in Thailand； well； then there's a problem in these other countries。 And so each step of the crisis created these shock waves that carried on into the next。
DANIEL YERGIN：在每一个阶段，这一危机都有一个致命的表现，被叫做恶性蔓延，比预想的要厉害得多。而它们真正所反映的是全球化的确是这些经济体紧扣在一起的载体，全球化也是投资者看待新兴市场的方式。
Onscreen caption： Kuala Lumpur； Malaysia； July 1997
字幕：吉隆坡，马来西亚，1997年7月
NARRATOR： Contagion spread to Thailand's neighbors。 Malaysia's economy had seemed stable。 Suddenly； it； too； was facing relentless pressure from global markets。
旁白：恶性影响蔓延到泰国的邻国。马来西亚的经济当时似乎是稳定的。突然，它也面临着来自全球市场的巨大的压力。
MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD： We have the currency going down and down and down； and we have the stock market doing the same。 The index kept on going down； no matter what we do。 And we felt totally helpless。 We felt that there was no way we could recover。 So； I mean； the feeling was very bad； very frightening。
马哈蒂尔：我们的货币持续贬值，我们的股票市场也同样持续走低。无论我们做什么，指数都持续下跌。我们感到完全无助。我们感到我们无法再恢复了。我是说，当时的感觉坏透了，很恐怖。
Onscreen caption： Jakarta； Indonesia
字幕：雅加达，印度尼西亚
NARRATOR： Contagion next hit Indonesia； the most populous country in the region。 Its government collapsed； its cities descended into chaos。
旁白：恶性影响下一个蔓延到印度尼西亚，该地区中人口最多的国家。它的政府垮台了；它的很多城市都陷入了骚乱中。
LEE KUAN YEW： The fund managers didn't know the difference between Indonesia and Malaysia； Thailand； Singapore。 They just said； "；I want out。"； Property prices collapsed； panies collapsed。 And in the case of Indonesia； the social fabric collapsed。 Churches have been burnt； mosques have been attacked； they have killed each other。 This will take years to heal。 And it's all the fallout of an economic collapse。
李光耀：那些基金经理人并不了解印度尼西亚和马来西亚，泰国，新加坡的区别。他们只是说：“我不玩儿了。”地产价格崩溃了；公司垮台了。在印度尼西亚，社会的秩序也垮掉了。教堂被焚毁；清真寺受到袭击；他们互相残杀。这需要很多年来平复。而所有这一切都是一次经济崩溃所带来的产物。
NARRATOR： This was a new kind of financial crisis； unlike anything the International Monetary Fund had ever encountered。 The IMF organized huge loans for Indonesia and other Asian nations； on the condition they cut government spending； raise interest rates； and eliminate corruption。
旁白：这是一种金融危机的新形式，与以往国际货币基金组织所遇到过的任何一种危机都不同。国际货币基金组织为印度尼西亚和其他亚洲国家组织了巨额贷款，条件是他们削减政府开支，提高利率，以及消除腐败。
STANLEY FISCHER： You're the doctor going in to deal with a very sick patient。 The public blames the doctor for the fact that the patient is sick； but the patient was sick to begin with。 But these things are societally wrenching； and there are huge vested interests； and you wouldn't get into these crises if the vested interests weren't that important。 That I think is why it takes political change to deal with a crisis as big as this。
STANLEY FISCHER：你就是一个要治疗一个危重病人的医生。公众抱怨这个医生因为那个病人有病，但是，是病人先有的病。然而这些事情是会对社会造成伤害的，但又有人期望从中获取巨大的利益，而如果这些所期望的利益不那么重要的话，你是不会深入到这些危机中去的。这就是我认为的为什么要处理好这么大的一次危机需要政治改革的原因。
NARRATOR： To some of the region's entrenched leaders； the IMF's conditions smacked of a new kind of colonialism。
旁白：对于该地区的一些地位巩固的领导人来说，国际货币基金组织的条件就象是一种新形式的殖民主义强加给他们的条件。
MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD： Presently we see a well…planned effort to undermine the economies of all the Asian countries by destabilizing their currencies。
马哈蒂尔：目前，我们看到一种要通过使我们的货币币值不稳定的方法来达到破坏所有亚洲国家经济的目的的，计划周密的努力。
In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force； and then you could control that country。 Today it is not necessary at all。 You can destabilize a country； make it poor； and then make a request for help； and for the help that is given； you gain control over the policies of the country； and when you gain control over the policies of a country； effectively you have colonized that country。
在过去，你需要首先用武力征服一个国家， 继而你就可以控制那个国家。现在，这些已经完全没有必要了。你可以使一个国家不稳定，使它变穷，然后它会向你请求帮助，而因为那些你给予的帮助，你就可以控制那个国家的政策，而当你控制了一个国家的政策，你就已经有效地把那个国家殖民化了。
NARRATOR： The market forces were simply too powerful for the IMF； or any government； to contain。 In late 1997； contagion reached Korea； one of the most successful economies in the world。
旁白：市场力量对于国际货币基金组织，或任何一个国家来说，都是太过强大了而无法遏制。在1997年末，恶性影响蔓延到韩国——世界上最成功的经济体之一。
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA： It was unbelievable that the crisis had spread as quickly as to Indonesia and Korea； and within a matter of six months or seven months。 But the world was much globalized that we thought it was at that time。
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA：这一危机蔓延得如此之快，在六，七个月间迅速蔓延到印度尼西亚和韩国，让人无法相信。但是，世界的全球化程度要比我们当时以为的大得多。
Onscreen caption： Seoul； Korea； December 1997
字幕：汉城，韩国，1997年12月
ROBERT RUBIN： In the last week of December of 1997； the 11th largest country …… economy； rather …… in the world； which was Korea； had roughly speaking 4 billion of reserves left and was using reserves at the rate of 1 billion a day。 Well； it didn't take a great deal of quantitative insight to see that that was not a long…term viable situation。
罗伯特。鲁宾：在1997年12月的最后一个星期，世界第十一大的国家 —— 经济体——韩国，只剩下四十亿美元的外汇储备，而以每天用掉十亿美元的速度消耗着它的储备。这并不需要大量的量化的洞察力就可以看出这不是一个长远可行的局面。
NARRATOR： Korea had been misleading the world； claiming it had enough money to withstand the crisis。 The IMF's Stanley Fischer arrived in Seoul to inspect the Central Bank's accounts。
旁白：韩国误导了世界，宣称它有足够的资金来抵御这次危机。国际货币基金组织的的费舍尔来到汉城审查中央银行的账目。
STANLEY FISCHER： I visited Korea a couple of days before they turned to the IMF for help； and it was a circus atmosphere。 It was a state of panic； and it was at that point that I went to the Central Bank and was shown how much money was left in the Korean Central bank。 It was essentially all gone。
费舍尔：我是在韩国向国际货币基金组织提请帮助的前两天访问韩国的。那里的气氛一片混乱。到处是一片惊恐。正是在那时，我去了中央银行并被告知韩国的中央银行还剩下多少钱。实际上，所有的钱都没了。
NARRATOR： Korea was about to default on its loans from Japanese and Western banks。 Pressured by their governments； the banks agreed to share some of the pain： They rolled over their loans。 Korea was then given the largest bailout in history。
旁白：韩国当时正要准备不履行他们�
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